Abstract：The problem of Food Security is the focus issue that is discussed by government and scholars. With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization in resent years, the cultivated land has decreased sharply and its soil is degenerating in Yangtze River delta, which is one of the developed areas in china. In the resent year, with the agriculture production structure adjusting and cultivated land area decreasing, it is more and more imbalance between yield and consumption of grain in Yangtze River delta. Base on the statistics and the latest land inventory of the past several years, firstly, the relationship between cultivated land change and food security is identified, the result show there are obvious relativity between cultivated land change and grain yield change, and they is concurrent change. Secondly, the fluctuant coefficient of grain yield is analy zed in Yangtze River delta. The result show there are two wave crest of grain yield fluctuate coefficient in Yangtze River delta in near 50. Thirdly, This paper forecasts the yield and consumption of grain in Yangtze River delta in the future, and tries to discuss the food security in Yangtze River delta from two indexes of food supply and demand by which this paper analyzes the status of food security in Yangtze River delta in future. Finally, this paper set up model to analyze food security in different period base on food supply and demand. The result indicated that gap of grain yield and consumption of grain is larger and larger. The main reason is cultivated land decrease inevitably that restrict food supplies deeply. And the grain yield will reduce gradually. This paper forecast that the grain yield is 1683.82×104t in 2025. the food gap is 639.66×104t in 2000, however, the food gap is 1452.53×104t in 2025. The state of food security worsens. The food security coefficient is only 0.5369 in 2025. This paper also put forward some suggest on food security in Yangtze River delta that is Stability of the cultivated land quality and to improve the output level of the cultivated land is the key approaches to keep the food security.
高中贵, 彭补拙, 濮励杰. 长江三角洲地区粮食安全性度量研究[J]. 人文地理, 2006, 21(1): 80-84.
GAO Zhong-gui, PENG Bu-zhuo, PU Li-jie. STUDY ON MEASUREMENT OF FOOD SECURITY IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2006, 21(1): 80-84.
